Job Reports

As detailed in our preliminary analysis of the February economic data, signs are pointing to continued weakness in the state economy

In the preliminary numbers, seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs fell 7,500 in February. The January numbers were revised from a preliminary result of no change in jobs to a loss of 21,400. The February number was the 49th highest among the states, with jobs led by Ohio with a gain of 23,100 followed by Texas with 25,600 and New Jersey at 19,200.

The January employment data incorporates the annual benchmark revisions, with changes to the wage and salary jobs data extending back in general to 2020 for the seasonally adjusted series and in some cases back to 1976. The labor force revisions extend back to 1976 as well. The Center’s data series have been updated with the new data for states and MSAs. The data for counties, regions, and legislative districts will be similarly revised after the data release later this month. In the short interim, comparisons between the January results for these sub-state regions and prior months should take into account the differences in the benchmark series.

Today’s release incorporates the first stage of the annual data benchmark revisions. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) at the end of 2024 were reduced by 97,000. Incorporating the 2023 changes, total jobs gains in 2024 were revised from a preliminary gain of 180,500 to 153,700. Jobs growth by industry was dominated by Government and government-supported Healthcare & Social Assistance, which combined grew by 210,600 in 2024. Trade related Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities grew by 30,500, while jobs in all other private industries shrank by a net 87,400.

In a somewhat different format, our Full Jobs Report for December provides an overview of California’s economic performance in 2024. The data is presented in two series: (1) outcomes in the last 12 months (or 4 quarters where applicable) for California and (2) longer term results beginning with the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Each chart indicates the time period covered by the indicator, with complete 2024 data available in some instances and partial year results or even only 2023 results available in particular for some of the broader economic measures such as state GDP. In cases where the December monthly data used, the 2024 results are preliminary.

The December preliminary data again showed mixed results from the two core surveys. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) rose 15,000 in December, while the November gains were lowered by 1,500 to 9,600. Employment (seasonally adjusted), in contrast, dipped by 3,100 from November, and by 13,800 for the year. Unemployment rose by 6,000 over the month, marking the 12th month in a row when the number of unemployed in the state was above 1 million.

The November numbers once again showed mixed results. Combined with an upward revision to the October numbers, nonfarm jobs showed moderate growth with a gain of 20,200 over the two months. Employment in contrast showed a total loss of 24,200 in this period, and a combined loss of 101,100 since the near-term high in May 2023.

California’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) continued rising by 0.1 point to 5.4%, while the number of unemployed again was above 1 million for the 10th month in a row. The number of unemployed essentially matched the level previously seen in mid-2016 during the pre-pandemic period. California had the second highest rate among the states, behind Nevada at 5.7%. DC also came in at 5.7%.
The net domestic outflow was counterbalanced for the first time in 4 years by an uptick in the level of foreign in-migration. In total, net migration for the state was positive due to this factor, but low at only 45,508. The data, however, is not able to track the number of persons moving from California to other nations. Note that in the chart, the ACS data for 2020 is not statistically significant for this indicator. The point shown for Net Total Migration is taken from the Department of Finance estimates.

The October numbers continued to show relative weakness in the state economy. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) dropped by 5,500 in the preliminary results. The results for September were revised down by 2,200 to a gain of 12,700. Over the past three months, nonfarm jobs have grown by only 6,000, compared to 74,200 in the same period in 2023.

The Census Bureau’s recent state migration numbers from the American Community Survey, 1-year estimates again show more people moved (690,127) from California than came here (422,075) from other states in 2023. The domestic inflow was the lowest in the data series (since 2010), while the outflow was comparable to the level in 2018.

The net domestic outflow was counterbalanced for the first time in 4 years by an uptick in the level of foreign in-migration. In total, net migration for the state was positive due to this factor, but low at only 45,508. The data, however, is not able to track the number of persons moving from California to other nations. Note that in the chart, the ACS data for 2020 is not statistically significant for this indicator. The point shown for Net Total Migration is taken from the Department of Finance estimates.

The September numbers were positive but again at relatively modest levels. Nonfarm jobs rose by 14,700 in the preliminary results, below the overall average of 22,100 over the previous 12 months and only 5.8% of the total national gain of 254,000. Nonfarm jobs in August were revised from a modest gain of 6,800 to a loss of 1,200.

The unemployment rate remained level at 5.3%. Total employment rose only 2,100 over the month and only by 6,300 since September 2023. Increasing by 11,400 for the month and by 64,100 over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed again was above 1 million mark for the 9th month in a row, posting the worst levels since the pandemic months in 2021.

Highlights for policy makers:
1) 2nd Quarter Real GDP 27th Highest Among the States; 1st Quarter Revised Higher
2) 2nd Quarter Personal Income Growth 4th Highest Among the States; Driven by Medi-Cal Benefits
3) Slowing Job Growth Potential
4) CaliFormer Businesses
5) State UI Fund Debt Passes $20 Billion

The August numbers were positive but at relatively modest levels. Although revisions to the July numbers show stronger growth that month, nonfarm wage and salary jobs grew by only 6,800 in August, the 8th highest level among the states. Employment gains were 8,700.

The JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) estimates continue to indicate California employers are cutting back on their hiring plans, reducing the likely scale of future jobs growth in the state.

The number of unfilled job openings at the end of June continued the current sharp decline trend, coming in at levels most recently seen during the height of the pandemic in 2020, and comparable to levels experienced in 2017 in the pre-pandemic period. Comparing the job opening rates (job openings as a share of job openings plus total employment), California has diverged strongly from the overall US level which has begun to level off at just below 5.0% as job expansion potential remains higher in the other states.

The July numbers were generally positive, but again at levels showing the state economy largely running in place. After posting the worst unemployment rate among the states 5 months in a row, California finally notched down to the second worst in July, tying with Illinois in that slot. The total number of unemployed, however, remained above the 1 million mark for the 7th month in a row. Employment while showing a marginal gain of 7,300 for the month still was 88,700 below the near term high posted in May 2023.