ZEV Reports

Data in the latest report from California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) again suggests that zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales have reached a current saturation point. As defined by the current CARB regulations, total ZEV sales (PEV—plug-in electric vehicles) dipped to 24.5% of all new light duty vehicle registrations, the lowest level since 2023:Q1. Battery hybrids (HEV) in contrast edged up to their highest level at 17.9%.

Recent press reports have raised the question of whether California will miss the governor’s ZEV sales mandates, currently set at requiring that 35% new light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2026 be qualifying plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), 68% by 2030, and 100% by 2035. These questions are based on recent Energy Commission sales data showing that the annual PEV market share essentially showed no movement, notching up to only 25.3% in 2024 from 25.0% in 2023. In total, the Energy Commission data shows only 2,091 more PEVs were sold in California in 2024.

The latest new vehicle data from California New Car Dealers Association shows total new light vehicle registrations in the third quarter were down 19.6% from the same period in the prior year, an improvement over the 48.9% drop in the second quarter but still lagging well behind the overall national decline of 8.4%. In addition to the associated jobs impacts, new vehicle sales are also a critical component of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 12% of total taxable sales in 2019.

The latest new vehicle data from California New Car Dealers Association shows total new light vehicle registrations in the third quarter were down 19.6% from the same period in the prior year, an improvement over the 48.9% drop in the second quarter but still lagging well behind the overall national decline of 8.4%. In addition to the associated jobs impacts, new vehicle sales are also a critical component of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 12% of total taxable sales in 2019.

The latest report from California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) shows total new light vehicle registrations in 2021 came in just above expectations at 1.86 million vehicles but were still off 11.0% compared to pre-pandemic 2019. The report indicates that sales are expected to continue a gradual recovery, reaching 1.93 million in 2022. These numbers, however, remain subject to uncertainty stemming from the continuing supply chain disruptions and their effect on both imported vehicle deliveries and component shortages affecting domestic production. In part reflecting these continuing shortages, the new vehicle element in the Consumer Price Index rose 12.5% over the year in the latest data for March. As discussed in our previous reports, new vehicle sales are also a major component of sales and use tax that provides revenues for a range of state and local programs.

The latest new vehicle data from California New Car Dealers Association shows total new light vehicle registrations in the third quarter were down 19.6% from the same period in the prior year, an improvement over the 48.9% drop in the second quarter but still lagging well behind the overall national decline of 8.4%. In addition to the associated jobs impacts, new vehicle sales are also a critical component of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 12% of total taxable sales in 2019.

The latest new vehicle data from California New Car Dealers Association shows total new light vehicle registrations in the third quarter were down 19.6% from the same period in the prior year, an improvement over the 48.9% drop in the second quarter but still lagging well behind the overall national decline of 8.4%. In addition to the associated jobs impacts, new vehicle sales are also a critical component of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 12% of total taxable sales in 2019.

The latest new vehicle data from California New Car Dealers Association shows total new light vehicle registrations in the third quarter were down 19.6% from the same period in the prior year, an improvement over the 48.9% drop in the second quarter but still lagging well behind the overall national decline of 8.4%. In addition to the associated jobs impacts, new vehicle sales are also a critical component of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 12% of total taxable sales in 2019.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales are still projected to be under 2 million units for the year, slipping below sales in the prior four years but still well above historical levels.  While slowing, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery.  New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13% of total taxable sales in the most recent data for the first quarter in 2018.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales are still projected to be under 2 million units for the year, slipping below sales in the prior four years but still well above historical levels.  While slowing, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery.  New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13% of total taxable sales in the most recent data for the first quarter in 2018.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales are still projected to be under 2 million units for the year, slipping below sales in the prior four years but still well above historical levels.  While slowing, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery.  New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13% of total taxable sales in the most recent data for the first quarter in 2018.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales are still projected to be under 2 million units for the year, slipping below sales in the prior four years but still well above historical levels.  While slowing, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery.  New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13% of total taxable sales in the most recent data for the first quarter in 2018.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales are now projected to be above 1.9 million units for the year.  Although slowing 4% from the prior year, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery. New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13% of total taxable sales in the most recent data for the first quarter in 2018.

• Light truck market share in the quarter was down marginally to 56.1%, compared to 57.3% in Q4 2018 and 53.6% in Q1 2018.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California similarly showed only a marginal change, accounting for 69.9% of new light vehicle sales. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) models—cars—continues to remain low as a result of consumer preferences.

• The average California price for regular gas in Q1 2019 was $3.34 a gallon, the same as the year prior.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales once again exceeded 2 million units for the year. Although slowing 2.2% from the prior year, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery. New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13.1% of total sales and use tax in the most recent data for the first three quarters of 2017.

• Light truck market share in the quarter was 57.3%, up from 54.0% in Q4 2017, as consumers continue to show a growing preference for this type of vehicle.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California continued to be more pronounced, accounting for 70.6% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter and 68.8% for the year overall. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most PEV models—cars—continues to contract as a result of consumer preferences.

• The trend towards light trucks continues in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q4 2018 was $3.70 a gallon, 19.5% higher than the prior year’s $3.13.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that while still projected to be at the fourth highest level during the past 11 years, new vehicle sales in California are now expected to be just shy of 2 million for the year.  Q3 deliveries for battery electric plug-ins (BEVs) continued to be up primarily as a result of Tesla fulfilling reservations for Model 3 made in prior quarters beginning in 2017.  Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) were up due to this factor and the continued shift from standard hybrid to PEV sales.  Key findings from the data:

• Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 51.3% in Q2 2017, as consumers continue to show a preference for this type of vehicle.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 71.3% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most PEV models—cars—continues to contract as a result of consumer preferences.  This trend is evident in GM’s recent announcement on the likely closing of three plants producing sedans (including the Volt PHEV) in order to move the company’s focus more to the light trucks/SUVs/crossovers consumers are buying as well as electric vehicles—which produce the credits needed to stay in compliance with both CAFE and ZEV regulations while enabling continued sales of the more profitable light truck models.  This action follows on similar but earlier moves by Ford and Fiat Chrysler.

• The trend towards light trucks continues in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q3 2018 was $3.64 a gallon, 19.5% higher than the prior year’s $3.05.