Reports

Data in the latest report from California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) again suggests that zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales have reached a current saturation point. As defined by the current CARB regulations, total ZEV sales (PEV—plug-in electric vehicles) dipped to 24.5% of all new light duty vehicle registrations, the lowest level since 2023:Q1. Battery hybrids (HEV) in contrast edged up to their highest level at 17.9%.

In January, the California average residential electricity bill (12-month moving average) kept moving up into 6th place among the contiguous states and DC, putting us just barely behind Texas. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states and DC.

Trade flows in the first two months of 2025 were heavily affected by two factors: accelerated inventory shipments in an effort to stay ahead of the recently imposed tariffs and the annual shifts due to the Chinese New Year holiday in China, which this year straddled both January and February. Total trade through the state’s ports in the first two months was up 14.9% from the same period in 2024 in nominal terms, and up 12.7% in real terms. Both measures represent a new high in trade activity.

As detailed in our preliminary analysis of the February economic data, signs are pointing to continued weakness in the state economy

In the preliminary numbers, seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs fell 7,500 in February. The January numbers were revised from a preliminary result of no change in jobs to a loss of 21,400. The February number was the 49th highest among the states, with jobs led by Ohio with a gain of 23,100 followed by Texas with 25,600 and New Jersey at 19,200.

Recent press reports have raised the question of whether California will miss the governor’s ZEV sales mandates, currently set at requiring that 35% new light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2026 be qualifying plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), 68% by 2030, and 100% by 2035. These questions are based on recent Energy Commission sales data showing that the annual PEV market share essentially showed no movement, notching up to only 25.3% in 2024 from 25.0% in 2023. In total, the Energy Commission data shows only 2,091 more PEVs were sold in California in 2024.

The January employment data incorporates the annual benchmark revisions, with changes to the wage and salary jobs data extending back in general to 2020 for the seasonally adjusted series and in some cases back to 1976. The labor force revisions extend back to 1976 as well. The Center’s data series have been updated with the new data for states and MSAs. The data for counties, regions, and legislative districts will be similarly revised after the data release later this month. In the short interim, comparisons between the January results for these sub-state regions and prior months should take into account the differences in the benchmark series.

Today’s release incorporates the first stage of the annual data benchmark revisions. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) at the end of 2024 were reduced by 97,000. Incorporating the 2023 changes, total jobs gains in 2024 were revised from a preliminary gain of 180,500 to 153,700. Jobs growth by industry was dominated by Government and government-supported Healthcare & Social Assistance, which combined grew by 210,600 in 2024. Trade related Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities grew by 30,500, while jobs in all other private industries shrank by a net 87,400.

California’s trade surged in January 2025, with total trade flows rising by $13.5 billion (20.2%) compared to January 2024. Origin exports from the state’s businesses were up $1.1 billion (7.8%), and destination imports into the state were up $8.8 billion (25.7%).

In November, California average residential electricity rates (12-month moving average) again were more than double the average for the rest of the US. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states and DC.

SB 222 would fundamentally alter California’s economic landscape by shifting climate policy into the courtroom, exposing businesses to retroactive liability for fossil fuel use dating back to 1965, leading to soaring litigation costs, higher consumer prices, and potential economic destabilization across key industries.

In November, California average residential electricity rates (12-month moving average) again were more than double the average for the rest of the US. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states and DC.

Incorporating the December data, Total Trade through the state’s ports grew to their highest levels in 2024. In nominal terms, Total Trade rose 12.7% over the year and 23.0% compared to pre-pandemic 2019. In real terms, Total Trade was up 12.2% compared to 2023 and 8.1% compared to 2019.

In a somewhat different format, our Full Jobs Report for December provides an overview of California’s economic performance in 2024. The data is presented in two series: (1) outcomes in the last 12 months (or 4 quarters where applicable) for California and (2) longer term results beginning with the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Each chart indicates the time period covered by the indicator, with complete 2024 data available in some instances and partial year results or even only 2023 results available in particular for some of the broader economic measures such as state GDP. In cases where the December monthly data used, the 2024 results are preliminary.

The December preliminary data again showed mixed results from the two core surveys. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) rose 15,000 in December, while the November gains were lowered by 1,500 to 9,600. Employment (seasonally adjusted), in contrast, dipped by 3,100 from November, and by 13,800 for the year. Unemployment rose by 6,000 over the month, marking the 12th month in a row when the number of unemployed in the state was above 1 million.